Cold Lake Growth Update: Housing Demand Acceleration & Strategic Hold Position

I am writing to provide a critical update regarding the accelerating economic and housing outlook in Cold Lake and the broader Lakeland Region.

Cold Lake is entering a once-in-a-generation expansion driven by the procurement and operational deployment of the CF-35 Lightning II aircraft. This capital investment will further entrench 4 Wing and the Cold Lake Air Weapons Range as national defense anchors, while expanding aerospace training, UAV operations, and contractor presence in partnership with CAE, SkyAlyne, Canadian UAVS, and Portage College.

With support from MLA Scott Cyr, the City of Cold Lake recently met with Premier Danielle Smith, Minister of Jobs, Economy and Trade Joseph Schow, and Parliamentary Secretary (Military Liaison and Chief Whip) MLA Justin Wright. Discussions centered on the scale of the generational capital forecast and the long-term workforce implications for the region and province.

The projected impacts include:

• Significant short-term construction employment
• Long-term permanent public and private sector job growth
• Expansion of aerospace and trades training capacity
• Advocacy for scheduled passenger air service into Cold Lake
• Highway 28 upgrades and broader transportation improvements
• Strategic consideration of future rail connectivity

Most importantly for investors: hundreds of personnel, contractors, tradespeople, instructors, and support staff are expected to enter the region seeking housing.

At present, Cold Lake has experienced little to no meaningful residential development in recent years. Inventory levels remain constrained, and new housing starts are not aligned with projected demand growth.

Even the City’s Starter Home Incentive Program — which provides a three-year municipal tax rebate for qualifying buyers and permit revenue rebates to builders (capped at 50 properties, maximum 1,600 sq. ft. above-grade, and $380,000 sale price) — has seen no formal uptake to date. While Council has renewed the program for another year and amendments may be introduced, current supply-side response remains limited.

This imbalance between incoming demand and constrained supply creates a clear market signal.

Based on projected population inflow, infrastructure timelines, and current inventory levels, rental rates in Cold Lake are forecasted to increase materially over the next several years. In a tightening market environment, it is reasonable to anticipate that rental rates could approach a doubling cycle over the medium term as vacancy compresses and absorption accelerates.

Accordingly, retaining your rental property is strategically important for two reasons:

1. Community Stability: Maintaining rental inventory supports housing availability during a critical expansion phase.
2. Portfolio Performance: Reduced vacancy, stronger tenant demand, and upward rental pressure materially improve yield and long-term asset appreciation.

Prematurely disposing of rental assets in a supply-constrained growth cycle may limit exposure to the strongest phase of the market expansion.

Cold Lake and the Lakeland Region are entering a transformational period. Housing availability will be a central economic constraint — and well-positioned investors will be part of the solution while benefiting from the growth cycle.

At The Property Consulting Group Inc., we continue to monitor absorption rates, vacancy compression trends, rental rate movement, and development indicators to ensure our clients remain positioned ahead of market inflection points.

If you would like to review your portfolio positioning in light of these forecasts, we would welcome a strategic discussion.

Lastly, we are exciting to host this spring our third Annual Investor Information Session where we will host leading professionals to help our clients make the most accurate and profitable decisions pertaining to their real estate asset; more to follow.